E3 Predictions the E3rd: Nintendo.

Ok, time to finally get around to my overdue third E3 predictions column. Nintendo has released its E3 line-up, and it’s pretty damn boring. A Mario baseball game, a revamped Kirby game, and a casual online game ported to the Nintendo DS. Whee. The big announcement of the show has widely been discussed already – Animal Crossing for Wii, and that one’s almost certainly true. I’d say the odds of an also-rumored Punch-Out game are only about 50/50.

So, what else might we see from Nintendo this week at E3? I have my thoughts, but you’re not going to like them.

Every year, there’s speculation about some revamped piece of hardware from Nintendo, and this year there might be a little bit of truth to the matter. Nintendo is due for a new version of the Wii – a new Wii color, that is. Both the Wii and DS are still moving so strongly that no further refresh is needed, but different Wii colors have always been the plan. It’s been a few years since the Wii launch, so if Nintendo still plans on doing multiple Wii colors, now’s the time.

Speaking of hardware, there’s been a lot of speculation that Nintendo will release a new peripheral, as they tend to sell Wiis more than actual games. I’d agree with that statement, but I think that no new peripherals will be announced this year. The Wii Balance Board is too new, and Nintendo has such a shoddy history supporting accessories that a new peripheral announcement would be tantamount to killing the Balance Board in its crib. Nope, I think it’s much more likely that we’ll get a new Balance Board game, something along the lines of the rumored Wii Health Pack or even a Balance Board-focuses Wii Sports 2.

Well, that’s not so bad so far, is it? I’ve got one more prediction left, and it’s a thematic prediction more than anything else. Reggie Fils-Aime has said that Nintendo hasn’t forgotten the core gamer. Well, I think they have. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that Nintendo is done with core gamers forever. I think this year will really be the turning point when it becomes clear that Nintendo will be focusing exclusively on casual, accessible, family-friendly games from here on out. Sure, there will be occasional bones thrown to the core gamer, but Nintendo will mostly be going through the motions. Here’s why core gamers are going to be left out in the cold:

1. Nintendo doesn’t need you. Let’s make this very clear. Every single hardcore Nintendo fanboy in the world could abandon the company forever, and it wouldn’t even notice. Nintendo is raking in so much money from the “new gamer” demographic that hardcore gamers are barely a factor.

2. Hardcore games don’t sell. At least, not in comparison to casual juggernauts like Wii Play, Wii Fit, and Mario Party 8. Yes, Twilight Princess sold over 4 million, but that was a launch title. The last core gamer titles on the system (in my mind) was Metroid Prime 3. It sold 1.3 million. Pretty good, right? Well, consider that a decades-long franchise with universal acclaim sold less than the generally reviled casual title Carnival Games (1.5 million). Major franchises have managed to move all right on the Wii but compared to casual titles, it’s no contest. Hardcore games are getting crushed.

3. Hardcore games are expensive. Metroid Prime 3 cost a bundle to make, just as all top-shelf core games do. Wii Play, on the other hand, is little more than a collection of tech demos. It sold nearly 12 million copies. Yes, it came with a Wii Remote, but that’s besides the point. It was dirt-cheap to make and it was a smash hit. Financially, Wii Play makes better business sense than Metroid Prime 3.

4. Nintendo doesn’t need games, hardcore or not. Despite the perceived weakness in the software library, the Wii doesn’t need more games. It doesn’t sell because of games, it sells in spite of games. If Nintendo announced at E3 that there would never be another game released for the Wii, it would still continue to sell just as well. The demand for the system is so built up it would be months before the new gamer demographic even noticed that there was no software. Then they’d shrug their shoulders and go back to Wii Sports, the only game they’ll ever play anyway.

Obviously, Nintendo isn’t going to stop releasing games for the Wii. However, I do think this year that it will look very clear that Nintendo doesn’t even concern itself with the core gamer any more. It doesn’t need to, and frankly, it doesn’t even make sense to bother. Sure, there will always be more Marios and More Zeldas, but there will be even more Brain Ages, Wii Fits, Wii Plays, Wii Sports, etc. And what are the chances that Nintendo will ever release something like another Eternal Darkness? Zero. The age of the gamer is over, at least as far as Nintendo is concerned.