Finally

This year’s E3 was universally declared pretty uninspiring by all corners of the video game world, and despite some debate on which company came out the best overall, there’s widespread agreement that Microsoft and Square Enix’s announcement of Final Fantasy XIII on the Xbox 360 was the biggest announcement of the show. Clearly, this is a big coup for Microsoft and a substantial blow for Sony. However, the victory and defeat are both more psychological than substantial Naming the FFXIII 360 announcement the biggest news of the show is more indicative of how bad this year’s E3 was than anything. Read on to learn why FFXIII on Xbox 360 isn’t as a big of a deal as people are making it out to be.

Before I continue onto why FFXIII’s 360 port is overblown, let’s first cover why it is in fact a big deal. First of all, it shows that Microsoft is in fact making further inroads into the Japanese software development world, even if the Japanese gaming public isn’t coming along with it. With the expanded cooperation of Square Enix, Microsoft is now working with the lion’s share of third-party Japanese developers. Capcom, Tecmo, Namco Bandai, Sega – they are all bringing content to a Microsoft platform, with far better regularity than the previous generation. The only real hold out left is Konami, and even they have brought some games to the platform. Metal Gear Solid 4 is obviously the last big exclusive for Konami and Sony, although the new Castlevania fighting game for Wii shows Konami still prioritizes development for Japanese platforms. Konami too will come around at some point. As I stated in my Microsoft E3 predictions post, there is an Xbox 360-exclusive Kojima productions game in the works, and I still think a MGS4 port is likely, given the monumental cost of that project, as well as the very-good-but-not-quite-great sales of the game thus far.

The 360 port of FFXIII is also big news because it shows growth within Square Enix. Some die-hard PlayStation fans see this move as a betrayal, but it’s not the first time S-E has shifted loyalties. After all, the FF series began its life as a Nintendo franchise. But S-E is a very Eastern-focused company, treating even its American branch with disdain. The nightmare stories I’ve heard about working there could fill a whole post, so I won’t rehash them here. In short, Square Enix is finally beginning to realize that working with all platform holders, Japanese and American, is necessary for success in the modern video game world, and that’s a good thing.

But here’s what neither Microsoft or Square Enix isn’t owning up to. Bringing FFXIII to the Xbox 360 isn’t gong to sell a significant amount of systems, and that’s why this news is overblown. Here’s why.

Final Fantasy is what I like to call an “insular franchise.” If you’re not already interested in the franchise, you are unlikely to become so. Japanese role-playing games have a tradition of slow evolution (or no evolution at all) and have thus become an increasingly niche category. Final Fantasy VII, the highwater mark for the series and the genre, sold nearly 10 million copies world wide. Final Fantasy XII sold about half that -still great sales, but other games in the genre that lack the powerhouse Final Fantasy name don’t do anywhere near that well. The Persona series has one of the most devoted and vocal fanbases around, and those games selling a couple hundred thousand copies each. Again, not bad sales, but these games are selling to the same audience each time. New audiences aren’t coming into the JRPG category, not in any significant numbers, anyway.

So, if the JRPG category isn’t attracting new players, then who is going to buy Final Fantasy XIII? Existing fans. JPRG fans tend to be hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers tend to be early adopters. They already have current-gen systems. Ask yourself: how many gamers do you know who were waiting for Final Fantasy XIII to buy a PlayStation 3 or Xbox 360? Chances are if they care about a series like Final Fantasy, they purchased their system long ago.

Realistically, here’s what I think will happen when Final Fantasy XIII releases. It will sell about 5 or 6 million copies worldwide – very respectable, yet far from the juggernauts of Call of Duty 4, GTAIV, etc. The sales will skew slightly higher on the 360, given the larger install base. Had the game not come to Xbox 360, most of those same buyers would have purchased the game for PlayStation 3, and the numbers would have been roughly the same, perhaps a bit lower. Microsoft will have succeeded in taking software dollars out of Sony’s hands but earned few additional hardware dollars. Despite the positives I mentioned above, Microsoft’s big E3 announcement accomplishes little more than taking some money out of Sony’s pocket.